Daily

January 18 th

Today's volatility range:

The rising interest rate has become a nightmare for the gold market. The new US government has indicated that it will spend a lot of money to boost the economic market. The market is worried that the interest rate will rise again, and the gold price will be obviously under pressure in the short term. It is expected that the 1808 support level may be tested today, and the suggested volatility is between 1807 and 1830 US dollars.

SARS-CoV-2 is still raging all over the world. There are 95,400 infected cases in the world, and nearly 500,000 new cases are added every day. The cumulative death toll exceeds 4 million. Even with the introduction of vaccines, many countries in the world have begun to arrange national vaccination programs, but the vaccination rate is lower than expected.

In addition to the shortage of vaccine supply and human resources, it is also a big problem for people to be wary of vaccine effectiveness; Besides the pharmaceutical companies can provide more data, I hope the government can invest more resources to educate the public so as to remove obstacles. Due to the stronger transmission of the British variant virus,

The situation in Europe is even more severe. In some parts of London, the British capital, one in every 20 people is infected. The British government raised the epidemic prevention measures in England to the fourth level, calling on the public not to go out if it is not necessary; There are more than 1,000 new deaths in Germany,

Reaching a historical high, Germany is considering extending the blockade period; In France, because of the increasing number of infection cases, the government is worried about dragging down the medical system, and announced a national curfew from last Saturday.

European Central Bank President Lagarde made her first speech this year last week, saying that although the COVID-19 epidemic is still severe, it is expected that there will still be enough vaccines available in the future. Lagarde added that some uncertainties that plagued the global economy last year have been eliminated, such as Brexit, the US election,

Vaccine approval, etc., she thinks that the economic prospects of the euro zone are more optimistic this year. Assuming that the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, most European countries will be able to lift the blockade measures before the end of the first quarter of this year. It is predicted that the economic growth of the yuan region in 2021 will be 3.9%, which is more optimistic than the 3.6% predicted by the economic report issued by the World Bank earlier.

Trump, the current president of the United States, has caused a lot of ants because of the Capitol Hill incident. The US House of Representatives has passed the impeachment bill, and Trump has become the first president to be impeached twice in American history. Although McConnell, the leader of the Senate Majority Party, has indicated that he will not invoke emergency power to review the impeachment bill submitted by the House of Representatives,

It means that Trump has little chance of being deposed by Congress before his term ends. But at least the incident made Trump know that the general trend was gone and agreed to hand over power peacefully to President-elect Biden. US President-elect Biden announced a stimulus plan of 2 trillion US dollars. It is reported that this plan will be divided into two accompanying parts;

Among them, $350 billion is local aid, and another $160 billion is vaccine and testing expenses. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Bowie also spoke, saying that he would not withdraw from the market in the short term, and reiterated that he would not raise interest rates in the short term until the US economy was far from reaching inflation and employment targets. Influenced by Powell's dovish remarks,

The U.S. dollar exchange rate immediately softened. In terms of US data, the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States rose sharply to 965,000 last week. After the data was released, it once stimulated the price of gold to rise to 1,863 US dollars per ounce. However, the market worried that the huge stimulus plan would push the interest rate of US treasury bonds, and the attractiveness of gold prices fell relatively.

Interest-bearing people reduced their holdings of gold and increased their holdings of interest-bearing bonds. The worst price of gold was $1,823 per ounce, with a fluctuation of $40 per week, and finally closed at $1,829 per ounce. In a week, it dropped by $20 in total, falling for two consecutive weeks.

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