Daily

September 19th

Today's amplitude range

The trend of the US dollar is still strong. If the RMB continues to lose capital and the global economy is in recession, the yield of 2-year government bonds will rise by nearly 3.9%, which will yield in the short and long term.

If the interest rate is widened, the US dollar will become a financial refuge to some extent, supporting the US dollar to continue its strength. This week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 points again.

The stated facts are enough to support beauty hovering at a high level. The price of gold has fallen below $1,680, and it has just formed a bottom-top reversal. Maybe it will try to hit this position, but still look.

Light prospect. The suggested volatility today is $1,666 to $1,682.

The 300 billion yuan increase of the State Council's economic stabilization policy was introduced in September and September, in order to support the sluggish market of high-rise buildings in the Mainland. However, the FOB price of RMB is against the US dollar.

A rise of 7% shows that the situation of capital withdrawal is still serious. In addition, Fitch, a credit rating agency, is pessimistic about the global economic outlook, and has drastically lowered its global GDP forecast.

The health index fell for three weeks in a row, and this week it fell 600 points or 3.1% to close at 18,761, a record low for half a year. Fitch, a credit institution, looks down on the global economic outlook,

The forecast of global GDP has been lowered sharply, and it is predicted that the euro zone and the UK will enter recession later this year, while the US will begin to appear in mid-2023.

Mild recession.

The World Bank also stepped on one more step, saying that with the central banks raising interest rates at the same time, the risk of global economic recession will increase in 2023, and central banks may have to raise interest rates by another 2% before

To achieve the goal of anti-inflation, what is even more worrying is that the global economy is generally caught in "stagflation". The three major European stock markets fell across the board, with Germany's DAX index falling.

2.65%； Paris CAC index fell 2.17%; Britain's FTSE 100 index fell by 1.56%. The consumption data released by the United States last Tuesday and the inflation data in August reflect inflation.

Still high, investors are worried that the Fed's interest rate meeting in September will be even stronger. It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates by 100 basis points in this week's interest rate meeting.

The increase to 30% triggered a tense atmosphere in the market, with a small stock market crash. In a week, the Dow Jones index fell by 4.13% and the S&P 500 index by 4.77.

%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.48%.

The economic data of the United States is still on the strong side, with the latest number of jobless claims falling for six weeks in a row, and the data of the retail industry is also better than the market expectation. This hot economy

The situation shows that the monetary policy recently tightened by the Federal Reserve has not yet achieved the effect of controlling inflation, and investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may adopt this week's interest rate meeting.

More exciting means of raising interest rates, the market surveyed that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 100 points next time reached 30%, and the price of gold finally fell below the iron bottom in the past six and a half years, closing at 16 last week.

The market closed at $75.50, and the price of gold fell by $41.70 in a week. The gold price reached a high of $1,735.2 last week and a low of $1,654.2, closing at $1,675.5.

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